Techniques of William Delbert Gann

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Techniques of William Delbert Gann

Postby Albert_Timashev on Sun Feb 22, 2009 3:18 am

I'd like to share some thoughts and observations concerning W.D.Gann techniques of market forecasting.

Most of Gann's techniques are nothing more than common sense, geometry and numerology. The only purely astrological technique is the direct projection of the price/index/rate/etc to the Zodiacal circle in absolute degrees. The only empirical question is the scale of such projection. Gann said that if projected value oscillates around 100.0, then one should use 1 degree for 1.0; if around 10.0, then 1 degree for 0.1; if around 1.0, then 1 degree for 0.01. However this is very rough.

I'd like to share my analysis of recent changes of exchange rate of Russian Ruble to US Dollar. The source graph is available here, and the source data here.

USDRUR.gif
USDRUR from 22-Feb-2008 till 20-Feb-2009
USDRUR.gif (10.62 KiB) Viewed 1201 times


As one can see, the rise of dollar (and the fall of ruble) started on July 15, 2008 at rate 23.0855 rubles for dollar (it was a change of a global trend), then the avalanche-like rise of dollar started on November 5, 2008 at rate 26.8799 rubles for dollar, and the avalanche-like rise of dollar ended on February 6, 2009 at rate 36.2850 rubles for dollar. It is obvious to me that avalanche-like market movement was caused by Saturn-Uranus opposition cycle: first exact opposition occured on November 4, 2008 and the second exact opposition occured on February 5, 2009. So this is how one could get times of that movement start and end. (Actually I didn't predict the start of that movement because I didn't watch the market, but after November 2008 I closely watched the market and have successfully predicted the end of the avalanche-like movement by the second Saturn-Uranus opposition and the resistance level where it stoped by Gann's technique.)

It's interesting to notice that a global trend change occured a week before Pluto heliocentric ingress to Capricorn (as one can see on the graph, the significant movement started in August 2008, after Pluto heliocentrically ingressed to Capricorn).

Now what W.D.Gann has to do with all that. Let's now project ruble-dollar exchange rate onto Zodiac using scale of 1 degree for 1 ruble.

The rate of 23.0855 gives 23°05' Aries on July 15, 2008.
The rate of 26.8799 gives 26°52' Aries on November 5, 2008.
The rate of 36.2850 gives 06°17' Taurus on February 6, 2009.

On July 15, 2008 Neptune was at 23°38' Aquarius (geocentric) and 22°39' Aquarius (heliocentric), that gives midpoint at 23°08' Aquarius, an exact sextile to the exchange rate at 23°05' Aries (orb 3'). As I know from my experience, the benefic influences favour the leader of the market and have adverse effects on its competitors, while malefic influences favour competitors and have adverse effects on the leader. This is why sextile (ruled by Venus, therefore beneficial aspect) of exalted Neptune to exchange rate indicated a rise of a dollar.

On February 6, 2009 Jupiter was at 07°30' Aquarius (geocentric) and 05°31' Aquarius (heliocentric), that gives midpoint at 06°30' Aquarius, an exact square to the exchange rate at 06°17' Taurus (orb 13'). Square is malefic aspect (since it's ruled by Mars), so it acted against the leader (dollar) and indicated a stop of the avalanche-like rise of it.

However, on November 5, 2008 I don't see such clear indication of the exchange rate level. Of course, Jupiter was at 27°32' Capricorn (heliocentric), just 40' away from the square to exchange rate at 26°52' Aries. But that's not too convincing. Square of fallen Jupiter to the exchange rate is obviously malefic, so it might be one of the factors indicated slight rollback before the avalanche-like rise, but cannot be the support level. Anyway, November 5, 2008 was just a pass-through point for the dollar on the way up, so it might be not so important as a global trend change on July 15, 2008 and a stop of an avalanche-like rise on February 6, 2009. And the latter two points are remarkably clear indicated by Gann's projection method.

If anybody has comments, suggestions or any other interesting market examples, I'd be glad to discuss it :)
Albert_Timashev
 
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Joined: Thu Feb 19, 2009 4:21 am
Location: St. Petersburg, Russia

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